Interpreting AKI warning stage results: avoiding false positives and negatives
Not all rises in serum creatinine represent AKI. In people with established CKD, modest changes may reflect biological variation, intercurrent illness, or progression of underlying disease rather than acute injury. Distinguishing AKI from CKD progression relies on clinical context, trends over time, and the reason testing was undertaken.
Not all AKI warning stage test results represent true AKI. Apparent or “pseudo-AKI” may arise where changes in serum creatinine do not reflect acute deterioration in kidney function.
Situations where an AKI warning stage result should be interpreted with particular caution include:
- People with established chronic kidney disease, where baseline creatinine values used by the detection algorithm may not reflect the individual’s true stable baseline.
- Long intervals between baseline and current creatinine measurements, particularly where previous values are more than 6–12 months old.
- Use of medicines such as trimethoprim, which can increase serum creatinine by inhibiting tubular secretion without reducing glomerular filtration.
- Physiological changes around pregnancy and the post-partum period, where creatinine may rise toward pre-pregnancy values.
There is also a need to consider the possibility of a false negative alert. Patients with a history of recurrent AKI may not always trigger an AKI alert if their median creatinine (days -7 to -365) is elevated by previous episodes of AKI, leading to a spuriously high baseline creatinine being generated within the detection algorithm.